International Business Machines (IBM)

How global shocks reach IBM

International Business Machines is filed under Technology, and 5 of the 6 shock types GLOBLVIEW tracks reach it through that sector (oil shock, conflict risk, chip/export, trade/tariff, rates/fed). Stories centered on the United States also register as geographic exposure, because International Business Machines is registered in the United States.

Direction is a tendency across cycles, not a forecast. Sector mapping uses the Finnhub industry classification; geography uses country of registration, not revenue by region.

What actually moves International Business Machines

IBM's rate and credit exposure sits in customer budgets and in a financing book, not in a chip cycle. Total debt was $61.26 billion at the end of 2025. Fixed-rate debt was $54.00 billion at a 3.5% average rate. Floating-rate debt was $7.26 billion at 5.0%, including fixed debt swapped to floating. Financing receivables held for investment grew about $3.4 billion during the year. If enterprise clients delay, both software renewals and the financing arm feel it.

Trade and export rules are narrower than a technology label implies. Software was 44% of revenue and consulting 31%. The FY2025 filing adds export controls on goods, technologies and inputs to an older tariff warning. Hardware, including the z17 mainframe cycle, is where a component rule bites. EMEA was 33% of revenue and grew fastest, so a European slowdown is a demand fact.

The less obvious payer is government. The filing does not size US federal work, but it says funding cuts, delays or stoppages can reduce public-sector demand. A Washington budget fight can matter more than an oil headline, which barely reaches this business. HashiCorp, bought in 2025, added to the software mix and does not change that public-sector point.

Drawn from the annual filing cited below. Not a forecast and not investment advice.

What International Business Machines sells and where it earns

IBM sells software, consulting and infrastructure, mainly to large enterprises and governments. Revenue was $67.54 billion in 2025, up 7.6%. Software was $29.96 billion, or 44%. It includes Hybrid Cloud (Red Hat) at $7.33 billion, Automation at $7.73 billion, Data at $6.30 billion and Transaction Processing at $8.60 billion. Automation now includes HashiCorp, acquired in the first quarter of 2025, which accounted for most of the year's rise in goodwill and intangible assets. Consulting brought in $21.06 billion, or 31%, and grew only 1.8%. Infrastructure was $15.72 billion, or 23%, up 12.1% on the mainframe cycle: the IBM z17 launched in June 2025 and Hybrid Infrastructure revenue rose 19.1%. Financing was 1%, so the segment shares add to 99% after rounding. The Americas produced 49% of revenue, Europe/Middle East/Africa 33% and Asia Pacific 18%. EMEA grew fastest, 14.2% as reported, while Asia Pacific slipped. IBM has clients in more than 175 countries, and its customers include the U.S. Federal Government, though the filing does not size that business.

Customer concentration

The 10-K does not name any customer as material to revenue. The concentration it does flag is the public sector: customers include the U.S. Federal Government and state and local entities, some agreements are subject to periodic funding approval, and funding reductions, delays or work stoppages could reduce public sector demand.

Debt

Total debt was $61.26 billion at December 31, 2025, up $6.3 billion, with $6.42 billion of short-term debt and $54.84 billion of long-term debt. Fixed-rate debt was $54.00 billion at a 3.5% weighted average rate and floating-rate debt $7.26 billion at 5.0%, a figure that includes $6.73 billion of fixed-rate debt swapped to floating.

Risk factors that moved this year

• AI has its own risk factor. IBM says the development and use of AI, including its growing AI products and its internal use of the technology, could hurt its long-term success and reputation or lead to legal or regulatory action. The FY2025 version adds that harm could follow if its AI technologies do not work as intended or produce unexpected outcomes, and now cites the evolving global AI regulatory and legal environment.
• Trade measures are spelled out in more detail. The FY2024 filing already said tariffs and sanctions could limit IBM's ability to move goods and services across borders or add cost, and that its mitigation steps could become less effective. The FY2025 filing adds export controls on goods, technologies, inputs and raw materials to that list.
• The cybersecurity risk factor says increased use of AI technologies may introduce novel methods of attack, widened from generative AI in the prior filing. It continues to cite ransomware, social engineering and cyber extortion aimed at customers, vendors and employees.

How this changes the exposure read

IBM is grouped with technology, which points to chip/export rules, but most revenue is software and services, so export rules matter mainly through the filing's new language on technologies and inputs. The bigger channels are rates/Fed and credit stress acting on enterprise IT budgets and on IBM's financing arm, where financing receivables held for investment grew about $3.4 billion during 2025. Trade/tariff affects hardware costs. Conflict risk hits through EMEA, a third of revenue. Oil shocks barely register. One exposure the template misses is US government spending, since funding cuts, delays or work stoppages reduce public sector demand.

Source: IBM 10-K, FY2025, IBM 10-K, FY2025, Exhibit 13 (Annual Report financials). Checked 2026-10-07. Figures are from the filing and may differ from the live stats above.

What is moving it now

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