Texas Instruments (TXN): chip and trade exposure

How global shocks reach TXN

Texas Instruments is filed under Semiconductors, and 4 of the 6 shock types GLOBLVIEW tracks reach it through that sector (oil shock, conflict risk, chip/export, trade/tariff). Stories centered on the United States also register as geographic exposure, because Texas Instruments is registered in the United States.

Direction is a tendency across cycles, not a forecast. Sector mapping uses the Finnhub industry classification; geography uses country of registration, not revenue by region.

What actually moves Texas Instruments

Texas Instruments' notes are fixed, and the next large borrowing may not be. Debt was $14.05 billion, all fixed-rate notes, with $500 million due in 2026 and no commercial paper drawn. In February 2026 TI agreed to buy Silicon Labs for about $7.5 billion, to be paid with cash and new debt. The rate on that new money is the open clock. Industrial and auto demand is the other one.

Trade and export rules are aimed at both the market and the inputs. About half of revenue comes from products shipped into China, against 21% from China-headquartered customers. The filing says the US and China have imposed tariffs specific to products TI sells, and that export controls on minerals, materials and equipment could affect what the fabs can buy. Owning 300-millimeter fabs in Texas and Utah reduces dependence on an Asian foundry.

The less obvious support is public money. The CHIPS Act offers up to $1.6 billion of direct funding for the large US fabs plus an investment tax credit. TI received $335 million of incentives in 2025. A change in how those incentives are policed is a policy risk the trade badge will not spell out.

Drawn from the annual filing cited below. Not a forecast and not investment advice.

What Texas Instruments sells and where it earns

Texas Instruments makes analog and embedded processing chips, a catalog of more than 80,000 products, and builds most of them in its own fabs. Revenue was $17.68 billion in 2025, up 13%. Analog was $14.01 billion, or 79%, and Embedded Processing $2.70 billion, or 15%. Other was $979 million, or 6%. TI reports geography by where the end customer is headquartered: the US was 38%, China 21%, Europe, Middle East and Africa 21%, rest of Asia 11%, Japan 7% and the rest of the world 2%. Shipments tell a different story, since products shipped into China were about 50% of revenue. More than 80% of revenue was sold direct, including through TI.com, with the rest going through distributors. TI is nearing the end of a six-year build-out of 300mm wafer fabs in Richardson and Sherman, Texas and Lehi, Utah. Capital spending was $4.55 billion in 2025 and is expected at $2 billion to $3 billion in 2026. The CHIPS Act provides up to $1.6 billion of direct funding for the three large 300mm fabs in Sherman and Lehi plus a 35% investment tax credit, and TI received $335 million of CHIPS incentives in 2025.

Customer concentration

The filing says "one of our end customers accounted for 12% of revenue in both 2025 and 2024," recognized primarily in the Analog segment. Customers headquartered in Germany were 10% of revenue in 2025.

Debt

Total debt was $14.05 billion at December 31, 2025: $500 million current (the 1.125% notes due 2026) and $13.55 billion long term, all in fixed-rate notes. The variable-rate revolving credit facility was undrawn and no commercial paper was outstanding. TI issued $1.20 billion of fixed-rate notes in 2025 and retired $750 million of maturing debt. In February 2026 TI agreed to buy Silicon Labs for about $7.5 billion in enterprise value, to be paid with cash on hand and new debt.

Risk factors that moved this year

• Tariffs aimed at chips and Chinese competition. The FY2025 filing adds that the U.S. and China have imposed tariffs, including tariffs specific to the products TI sells. It also keeps naming China's policy-driven push to build its domestic semiconductor industry as a source of increased competition.
• Export controls on inputs. New language says key manufacturing materials are sourced from limited geographies and that governments have adopted or proposed export controls on certain minerals, materials and equipment that could affect their availability, cost or movement.
• Scrutiny of incentives. With CHIPS Act grants and tax credits flowing, TI warns, as it has since its FY2023 filing, that it may face increased scrutiny from government entities, shareholders and others over how those incentives are earned and spent.

How this changes the exposure read

TXN is a direct China and trade name. About half of revenue comes from products shipped into China, 21% from China-headquartered customers, and the filing names tariffs specific to its products and Chinese domestic competition as risks. Chip/export rules cut both ways: limits on market access and export controls on the minerals and equipment it buys. Owning fabs in Texas and Utah softens conflict risk tied to Asian foundries. Rates/Fed and credit stress reach it through industrial and automotive demand cycles and distributor finances. Oil shocks are mostly an indirect demand factor.

Source: Texas Instruments 10-K, FY2025. Checked 2026-10-07. Figures are from the filing and may differ from the live stats above.

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