PepsiCo (PEP): beverage and trade exposure

How global shocks reach PEP

None of the tracked sector channels map to PepsiCo (Beverages), so only geography applies. Stories centered on the United States register as exposure, because the company is registered in the United States.

Direction is a tendency across cycles, not a forecast. Sector mapping uses the Finnhub industry classification; geography uses country of registration, not revenue by region.

What actually moves PepsiCo

PepsiCo feels rates on a large stack and, unusually, can gain a little on the net interest line when rates rise. Debt was $49.18 billion, with $6.86 billion due within 12 months, including commercial paper. Notes are mostly fixed, with $2.0 billion of swaps turning some of it floating. Because cash exceeds variable-rate debt, the filing says a 1 point rise would have cut 2025 net interest expense by $36 million. Currency on the non-US 44% of revenue is the larger financial path.

Oil and tariffs hit costs, and PepsiCo owns more of the plants and trucks than a concentrate company does. Fuel, natural gas, PET and plastic film are direct. Higher commodity costs took about 5 points off 2025 operating profit. The filing gives tariffs their own section and names US measures on China, the EU, Canada and Mexico, plus retaliation. Mexico was the second-largest country, at $6.95 billion of revenue.

The less obvious geopolitical line is Russia, where PepsiCo still owns plants. Russia revenue grew to $4.77 billion, about 5% of the total, ahead of Canada and China. The less obvious customer is Walmart and Sam's Club, about 14% of consolidated net revenue.

Drawn from the annual filing cited below. Not a forecast and not investment advice.

What PepsiCo sells and where it earns

PepsiCo makes and sells snacks and drinks, and unlike Coca-Cola it runs much of its own manufacturing and delivery. Net revenue was $93.93 billion for the year ended December 27, 2025, up 2%. Operating profit fell 11% to $11.50 billion, hurt by higher commodity costs, an impairment of the Rockstar brand and lower volume. The company reports six segments. PepsiCo Beverages North America was the largest at $28.20 billion, or 30%, followed by PepsiCo Foods North America at $27.53 billion, or 29%. Europe, Middle East and Africa was 19%, Latin America Foods 11%, International Beverages Franchise 5% and Asia Pacific Foods 5% (99% after rounding). The United States produced $52.23 billion, or 56% of net revenue. Mexico was the next largest country at $6.95 billion. Russia, where PepsiCo still owns plants, grew to $4.77 billion from $3.88 billion and ranks ahead of Canada and China. Key packaging materials include PET and other plastic resins, aluminum, glass and cardboard, and fuel, electricity and natural gas matter for its plants and delivery vehicles.

Customer concentration

In 2025, the 10-K says, "sales to Walmart Inc. (Walmart) and its affiliates, including Sam's Club (Sam's), represented approximately 14% of our consolidated net revenue," counting concentrate sold to bottlers for drinks sold at Walmart. The company says losing Walmart would have a material adverse effect on its two North American segments.

Debt

PepsiCo had $49.18 billion of debt at December 27, 2025: $42.32 billion long term and $6.86 billion short term, which is the amount due within 12 months and includes $4.03 billion of current maturities and $2.64 billion of commercial paper at 3.8%. The notes are mostly fixed rate, with $2.0 billion of interest rate swaps turning some of that debt floating. Because cash exceeds its variable-rate debt, the filing says a 1 point rise in rates would have cut 2025 net interest expense by $36 million.

Risk factors that moved this year

• Tariffs now get their own discussion. The FY2025 filing adds a section on risks associated with tariffs, naming US tariffs imposed or threatened on China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico and retaliation by those countries, which it says have already raised the cost of some raw materials and packaging. The prior year's 10-K mentioned US tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico only inside broader risk factors.
• Benefit programs are a new demand risk. The filing cites changes in funding for, or restrictions on, buying its products through programs such as SNAP in the United States, which the prior year's 10-K did not mention.
• Ingredient rules are tighter. The filing points to a Texas law passed in 2025 requiring warning labels on products with certain ingredients, including artificial colors, effective January 1, 2027, and says jurisdictions including the US have imposed or are considering restrictions on ultra-processed foods. A year earlier it described the US as only evaluating such limits.

How this changes the exposure read

Like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo feels oil through costs rather than demand, and more directly, since it runs much of its own production and delivery: fuel, natural gas, PET and other resins, and plastic film. Higher commodity costs took about 5 points off 2025 operating profit. On trade and tariffs, the filing names US tariffs on China, the EU, Canada and Mexico raising input costs, and Mexico is its second-largest country. Conflict risk includes Russia, $4.77 billion of 2025 revenue. Rates/Fed act through $49 billion of debt and currency moves. Credit stress would concentrate in Walmart, at 14% of revenue. Chip/export rules are irrelevant.

Source: PepsiCo 10-K, FY2025. Checked 2026-10-07. Figures are from the filing and may differ from the live stats above.

What is moving it now

Key stats

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