McDonald's (MCD): consumer and rate exposure

How global shocks reach MCD

McDonald's is filed under Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure, and 2 of the 6 shock types GLOBLVIEW tracks reach it through that sector (oil shock, conflict risk). Stories centered on the United States also register as geographic exposure, because McDonald's is registered in the United States.

Direction is a tendency across cycles, not a forecast. Sector mapping uses the Finnhub industry classification; geography uses country of registration, not revenue by region.

What actually moves McDonald's

McDonald's looks exposed to beef, oil and wages, and the franchise model blunts that. About 95% of restaurants are franchised. Franchisees buy the food and pay the crew. The company collects rent and royalties, which were most of its margin. Company-operated restaurants are about 5% of the estate, and that is where commodity inflation hits McDonald's own costs directly. It can still slow comparable sales everywhere if franchisees raise prices or customers trade down.

Rates sit on a large, mostly fixed stack. Debt obligations were about $40 billion, 97% fixed after swaps, and 39% in foreign currencies. Little is contractually due in 2026 only because short-term obligations were reclassified against a credit line. Consumer spending is the other rate path. Credit stress that hurts franchisees threatens the rent stream. Future minimum rent under existing deals was $31.45 billion.

Trade and conflict reach supply costs and foreign demand. The filing names tariffs among the causes of supply interruptions, and it names anti-American sentiment as a drag on consumer behavior abroad. About 60% of revenue is outside the United States. The less obvious point is that the company is a landlord.

Drawn from the annual filing cited below. Not a forecast and not investment advice.

What McDonald's sells and where it earns

McDonald's is mostly a landlord and brand licensor. Of 45,356 restaurants at the end of 2025, about 95% were run by franchisees. Total revenue was $26.89 billion, up 4%. Franchised revenues were $16.55 billion, of which $10.44 billion was rent and $6.02 billion was royalties, both largely tied to franchisee sales. Company-operated restaurants brought in $9.69 billion of sales but only $1.42 billion of margin, against $13.93 billion of margin from franchised restaurants. That gap is the model: the company carries food, paper and payroll costs only in the restaurants it runs itself, while franchisees bear them everywhere else. There are three segments. The US produced 40% of revenue. International Operated Markets, which include Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK, produced 51%. International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate, over 75 countries largely run by licensees and including equity stakes in China and Japan, produced 9%. That segment's franchised and company-operated revenue fell 11% (total segment revenue fell 9%) after the 2024 sale of the South Korea business. Comparable sales rose 2.1% in the US and 3.2% in International Operated Markets.

Customer concentration

The 10-K does not disclose any customer or franchisee concentration. Revenue depends on franchisee sales across roughly 43,000 franchised restaurants, and future minimum rent owed under existing conventional franchise arrangements totaled $31.45 billion at December 31, 2025.

Debt

Debt obligations were $40.15 billion before fair value adjustments at December 31, 2025, and $39.97 billion as carried. The maturity schedule shows nothing due in 2026 only because $1.5 billion of short-term obligations ($798 million of commercial paper and $725 million of current maturities) were reclassified as long-term, backed by a credit line expiring in June 2028. Fixed rate debt was 97% of the total after swaps, and 39% was denominated in foreign currencies, mainly euros.

Risk factors that moved this year

• AI risk language is expanded. AI was already mentioned in earlier filings, but the FY2025 filing adds wording that the AI tools McDonald's is building into its business may not deliver the intended efficiencies, could cause operational and data integrity problems, and will face new rules on transparency, bias and privacy as it uses AI for personalization.
• Tariffs are named among the causes of supply chain interruptions and price increases, alongside shortages, inflation and geopolitical tensions. The filing says commodity markets for beef and chicken are particularly volatile and that hedging only partly covers price risk in company-operated restaurants.
• Anti-American sentiment now appears by name among the social and geopolitical conditions that can hurt consumer behavior abroad. The prior year's filing cited the war in the Middle East as a drag on International Developmental Licensed Markets sales; the FY2025 filing does not mention the Middle East at all.

How this changes the exposure read

A consumer template treats McDonald's as exposed to input costs, but the franchise model blunts that. Oil shocks and beef or labor inflation hit franchisee margins first and company margins only in the roughly 5% of restaurants it runs, though they can still slow comparable sales. Trade/tariff and conflict risk reach it through supply costs and through consumer sentiment abroad, now including anti-American sentiment, with 60% of revenue outside the US. Rates/Fed matter through $40 billion of debt, 97% fixed, and through consumer spending. Credit stress could squeeze franchisees. Chip/export rules are irrelevant.

Source: McDonald's 10-K, FY2025. Checked 2026-10-07. Figures are from the filing and may differ from the live stats above.

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