Coca-Cola (KO): beverage and trade exposure

How global shocks reach KO

None of the tracked sector channels map to Coca-Cola (Beverages), so only geography applies. Stories centered on the United States register as exposure, because the company is registered in the United States.

Direction is a tendency across cycles, not a forecast. Sector mapping uses the Finnhub industry classification; geography uses country of registration, not revenue by region.

What actually moves Coca-Cola

Coca-Cola's interest bill is real and usually smaller than the currency and commodity paths. Debt was $45.49 billion. Long-term debt carried a 3.3% average rate, plus about $1.5 billion of commercial paper. The filing estimates a 1 point rise on variable-rate debt and derivatives would have added $120 million of 2025 interest expense. About 39% of debt was in foreign currencies, mainly euros. A dollar move hits both translation of the 60% of revenue earned abroad and part of the debt.

Trade and oil hit the bottler more than the concentrate company, and then come back upstairs. PET resin, aluminum, glass and delivery fuel squeeze bottler margins. Incidence-based concentrate pricing can pass some of that into Coca-Cola's revenue. The filing names tariffs that raise what suppliers pay. Conflict works mainly through currencies and demand in the international 60%.

The less obvious concentration is one bottler, unnamed, that accounted for 10% of net operating revenues in 2025, the first time in the three years shown. The other hanging item is the IRS dispute over foreign licensee income, with a $6.0 billion deposit already paid. That is a tax case, not a macro theme.

Drawn from the annual filing cited below. Not a forecast and not investment advice.

What Coca-Cola sells and where it earns

Coca-Cola mostly sells beverage concentrates and syrups to bottlers, which make, package and distribute the finished drinks. It also owns some bottling and other finished-product businesses. Net operating revenues were $47.94 billion in 2025, up from $47.06 billion. Concentrate operations produced 59% of revenue but 85% of unit case volume. Finished product operations produced 41% of revenue on 15% of volume, since selling a finished drink brings more revenue at a lower margin. Effective January 1, 2025 the company retired its Global Ventures segment; the Costa, innocent and doğadan results now sit in EMEA. On third-party revenue, North America was 41%, EMEA 23%, Latin America 13%, Bottling Investments 12% and Asia Pacific 11%. The United States was $19.13 billion, or 40%, and everything outside it 60%. Its bottling operations in Africa were classified as held for sale at year end. Hanging over the results is a long dispute with the IRS over income from foreign licensees for 2007 through 2009, which Coca-Cola lost in Tax Court and is now appealing after paying a $6.0 billion deposit in 2024.

Customer concentration

The 10-K says that "for the year ended December 31, 2025, one bottler accounted for 10% of our net operating revenues," reported in the EMEA and Asia Pacific segments. The bottler is not named, and no bottler or customer reached 10% in 2024 or 2023.

Debt

Coca-Cola had $45.49 billion of debt at December 31, 2025: $43.94 billion of long-term debt, including current maturities, at a 3.3% average rate, plus $1.55 billion of loans and notes payable, mostly $1.50 billion of commercial paper at 3.9%. About $3.37 billion, the $1.82 billion current portion plus short-term borrowings, is due within 12 months, and a further $1.44 billion of Africa bottling debt sits in liabilities held for sale. The filing estimates that a 1 point rise in rates on its variable-rate debt and derivatives would have added $120 million of 2025 interest expense.

Risk factors that moved this year

• The IRS tax case remains prominent but has shifted. Coca-Cola's Eleventh Circuit appeal was fully briefed by August 27, 2025, and on October 1, 2025 the Eighth Circuit reversed the Tax Court in the 3M case on the blocked-income regulation, which the company calls highly supportive of its position. If the Tax Court rulings stand, the filing warns of significant additional liabilities for later years too.
• Health policy pressure is broader. The filing newly cites US federal and state initiatives on the drivers of childhood chronic disease, alongside possible sugar taxes, ingredient rules and restrictions on buying its products through benefit programs such as SNAP.
• Bottler concentration crossed a disclosure line. One bottler reached 10% of net operating revenues in 2025, the first time in the three years shown, which makes the health and decisions of a single partner more material.

How this changes the exposure read

The staples template assumes oil hits demand. For Coca-Cola it hits costs, and mostly at its bottlers: PET resin, aluminum cans, glass and fuel for delivery fleets. Those costs squeeze bottler margins and, through incidence-based concentrate pricing, reach Coca-Cola's own revenue. Trade/tariff exposure runs through aluminum and other packaging inputs, and the filing names tariffs that raise suppliers' sourcing costs. Conflict risk works mainly through currencies and demand abroad, where 60% of revenue is earned. Rates/Fed matter through about $45 billion of debt and the dollar's effect on translation. Credit stress is mostly a bottler question. Chip/export rules do not apply.

Source: Coca-Cola 10-K, FY2025. Checked 2026-10-07. Figures are from the filing and may differ from the live stats above.

What is moving it now

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