Nike (NKE): apparel and trade exposure

How global shocks reach NKE

None of the tracked sector channels map to Nike (Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods), so only geography applies. Stories centered on the United States register as exposure, because the company is registered in the United States.

Direction is a tendency across cycles, not a forecast. Sector mapping uses the Finnhub industry classification; geography uses country of registration, not revenue by region.

What actually moves Nike

Nike's notes are mostly fixed, and the trade channel is not. Long-term debt was $7.94 billion, all fixed-rate dollar notes at a 3.1% average rate, with $2.4 billion swapped to variable and $2.00 billion current. Nothing was drawn on the commercial paper program. Rates and credit stress work through consumer spending and wholesale partners. Nike Direct fell while wholesale rose, so the wholesale customer's inventory decisions are back in the numbers.

Trade lands in cost of sales because almost everything is made by contract factories. In fiscal 2026, Vietnam, Indonesia and China made about 52%, 27% and 16% of Nike Brand footwear. Vietnam, Cambodia and China made 34%, 15% and 12% of apparel. Four footwear makers handled about 60% of footwear output. After a 2026 Supreme Court ruling on emergency tariffs, Nike booked a $986 million cost-of-sales benefit for expected refunds. That shows the size of the tariff line. It does not end the policy.

Greater China is the demand side of the same map. Revenue there fell 11%, and it was 13% of the total. Conflict or a shipping break in the South China Sea hits the factories and the freight, not a domestic mill.

Drawn from the annual filing cited below. Not a forecast and not investment advice.

What Nike sells and where it earns

Nike designs and markets athletic footwear, apparel and equipment under the Nike, Jordan and Converse brands, and independent contract manufacturers make the products. Revenue for the year ended May 31, 2026 was $46.40 billion, flat on the prior year and still below the $51.36 billion of fiscal 2024. Nike Brand footwear was $29.53 billion, apparel $13.45 billion and equipment $2.20 billion. Converse shrank 31% to $1.17 billion and earned almost nothing. The channel mix moved back toward wholesale partners: Nike Brand sales to wholesale customers rose 6% to $27.45 billion while Nike Direct fell 6% to $17.72 billion. North America grew 5%, while Greater China fell 11%. Production sits with contract factories in Asia. In fiscal 2026, factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and China made about 52%, 27% and 16% of Nike Brand footwear, and Vietnam, Cambodia and China made 34%, 15% and 12% of apparel. Four footwear makers handled about 60% of footwear output. Segment shares below sum to 101% after rounding.

Customer concentration

The filing states that "no customer accounted for 10% or more" of consolidated revenue in fiscal 2026. Outside the U.S., the three largest customers were about 16% of non-U.S. sales. Supply is more concentrated than demand: four footwear contract manufacturers made about 60% of Nike Brand footwear.

Debt

Long-term debt was $7.94 billion at May 31, 2026, of which $2.00 billion is a current maturity due in fiscal 2027. All $8.0 billion of principal is fixed rate U.S. dollar notes at a 3.1% average rate, with $2.4 billion swapped to variable. Nothing was outstanding under the $3 billion commercial paper program.

Risk factors that moved this year

• Tariffs, and now tariff refunds, are new. After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026 that IEEPA tariffs were unauthorized, Nike booked a $986 million benefit in cost of sales for expected refunds, $965 million of it in North America, which largely offset the IEEPA tariffs it had paid during the year. It says it will keep monitoring trade policy, refunds and litigation.
• Greater China is prominent rather than new. Revenue there fell 11% to $5.85 billion and segment earnings fell 20%, following a 13% revenue decline the year before.
• Converse is prominent rather than new. Revenue fell 31% and its earnings before interest and taxes dropped to $18 million from $240 million, and Converse gross margin slipped to about 44% from 49%.

How this changes the exposure read

Nike is one of the most direct trade/tariff names in the consumer group. Nearly all product is made by contract factories abroad, with Vietnam alone making about 52% of footwear and 34% of apparel, so tariffs on Vietnam, Indonesia or China land straight in cost of sales, as the $986 million IEEPA refund shows. Conflict risk matters through Asian factories and shipping lanes and through Greater China, 13% of revenue. Oil shocks reach it through freight and synthetic materials. Chip/export rules barely apply. Rates/Fed and credit stress work through consumer spending and wholesale partners rather than its fixed rate debt.

Source: Nike 10-K, FY2026. Checked 2026-10-07. Figures are from the filing and may differ from the live stats above.

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