JPMorgan Chase (JPM): rates and credit exposure
How global shocks reach JPM
JPMorgan Chase is filed under Banking, and 2 of the 6 shock types GLOBLVIEW tracks reach it through that sector (rates/fed, credit stress). Stories centered on the United States also register as geographic exposure, because JPMorgan Chase is registered in the United States.
| Shock | Channel | Tendency for JPM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| RATES/FED | Price of money | ▲ tends to benefit | Higher rates tend to help banking when loans reprice faster than deposits, which widens net interest margin. |
| CREDIT STRESS | Risk appetite | ▼ tends to be pressured | Credit stress tends to hit banking directly, through funding costs, defaults, or a general pullback in lending. |
Direction is a tendency across cycles, not a forecast. Sector mapping uses the Finnhub industry classification; geography uses country of registration, not revenue by region.
What actually moves JPMorgan Chase
Rates are the main cash channel, and the bank's table is not a simple "higher is better" line. Net interest income was $95.4 billion, slightly more than half of net revenue. An immediate 100 basis point parallel rise would add about $2.1 billion. A 100 basis point drop would cut about $2.4 billion. Deposits were $2.56 trillion and funded most of the liabilities. Loans were only 58% of deposits, so this is a deposit franchise, not a wholesale-funded lender.
Trade and conflict reach JPMorgan through clients and trading, not through a plant. The filing added foreign policies that emphasize national interest, and requirements to relocate activity, next to tariffs and sanctions. A geopolitical shock can lift markets revenue in the short run and hurt borrowers at the same time. North America was about 77% of revenue.
The less obvious credit path is outside the bank's own loan book. The filing warns that rapid growth in private credit could worsen losses among non-bank lenders and spill into funding markets and into the bank's trading positions. Uninsured deposits were an estimated $1.56 trillion, mostly wholesale operating balances. Stablecoins are named as a payments competitor. Chip rules barely belong on this page.
Drawn from the annual filing cited below. Not a forecast and not investment advice.
What JPMorgan Chase sells and where it earns
JPMorgan Chase is a US bank holding company with $4.42 trillion of assets on its balance sheet at December 31, 2025. It earned $182.4 billion of net revenue in 2025, and slightly more than half of that, $95.4 billion, was net interest income: the spread between what it earns on loans and securities and what it pays depositors and other lenders. The rest came from fees, card income, trading and asset management. The bank is run as three operating businesses plus a Corporate unit. Consumer & Community Banking handles Chase branches, credit cards, mortgages and auto loans, and its main bank subsidiary has branches in 48 states and Washington, D.C. The Commercial & Investment Bank covers investment banking, markets, payments, securities services and lending to mid-sized and large companies. Asset & Wealth Management runs money for institutions and wealthy individuals, including the Global Private Bank. Corporate holds the investment securities portfolio and treasury functions. Most of the business is domestic. North America produced about three quarters of 2025 revenue, and most of the international revenue comes through the Commercial & Investment Bank.
Customer concentration
The 10-K does not identify any single client as material to revenue. Deposits are the bigger concentration question: of $2.56 trillion in deposits at December 31, 2025, an estimated $1.56 trillion was uninsured, mostly wholesale operating deposits from corporate and institutional clients.
Debt
Deposits of $2.56 trillion made up 63% of total liabilities at December 31, 2025, and loans were only 58% of deposits, so the bank funds itself mostly with customer money rather than wholesale markets. Long-term debt was $435.2 billion, about 11% of liabilities. The filing's earnings-at-risk table shows net interest income rising about $2.1 billion under an immediate 100bp parallel rise in rates and falling about $2.4 billion under a 100bp drop.
Risk factors that moved this year
- Private credit is a new item. The FY2025 filing warns that the rapid growth of private credit could worsen losses among non-bank lenders and their borrowers, and that stress there could spread into broader funding and credit markets and hit the bank's market-making positions.
- Competition from crypto now names stablecoins specifically, alongside tokenized securities, as non-bank products that could pull payments and deposit business away from banks. The prior year's filing did not mention stablecoins.
- The list of political risks grew to include foreign policies that emphasize national interests and requirements to relocate business activities, alongside tariffs, sanctions and other trade policies.
How this changes the exposure read
Rates/Fed is the main channel, and it runs the opposite way from what a generic bank template suggests: the filing says a 100bp cut would cost more net interest income than a 100bp rise would add. Credit stress reaches the bank through card losses at Consumer & Community Banking and, newly flagged, through private credit spillovers. Conflict risk and oil shocks matter mostly through trading volatility, which tends to help markets revenue in the short run. Trade/tariff exposure is indirect, through corporate borrowers. Chip/export rules barely touch it.
Source: JPMorgan Chase 10-K, FY2025. Checked 2026-10-05. Figures are from the filing and may differ from the live stats above.
What is moving it now
Key stats
Recent filings
No SEC filings found.
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Quotes may be delayed. Information only, not investment advice.