Home Depot (HD): retail demand exposure

How global shocks reach HD

Home Depot is filed under Retail, and 1 of the 6 shock types GLOBLVIEW tracks reach it through that sector (trade/tariff). Stories centered on the United States also register as geographic exposure, because Home Depot is registered in the United States.

Direction is a tendency across cycles, not a forecast. Sector mapping uses the Finnhub industry classification; geography uses country of registration, not revenue by region.

What actually moves Home Depot

The rate channel at Home Depot is housing turnover, not the coupon. Floating-rate principal after swaps was $5.4 billion, about 11% of the senior notes. The filing says a one point rise would add about $54 million of annual interest expense. The same filing says high rates and higher home prices kept housing turnover historically low, which cuts projects tied to buying and selling a home. Comparable sales rose just 0.3% in fiscal 2025. The demand fact is larger than the interest fact.

Trade is a sourcing fact. The filing names Mexico, Canada and China, says tariffs have hit some categories since the start of fiscal 2025, and says it is unclear what replaces tariffs the Supreme Court struck down under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The United States was 92% of sales, so this is an import-cost story, not an export story.

The less obvious credit line is the pro customer. Specialty trade and maintenance buyers increasingly use trade credit, and the filing says a downturn in their trades could raise defaults. That book grew with SRS and GMS. Roofing was about 53% of the Other segment.

Drawn from the annual filing cited below. Not a forecast and not investment advice.

What Home Depot sells and where it earns

Home Depot is the largest home improvement retailer by net sales, with 2,359 stores in the U.S., Canada and Mexico at the end of fiscal 2025. Net sales for the 52 weeks ended February 1, 2026 rose 3.2% to $164.7 billion, but acquisitions did most of the work. SRS, bought in June 2024, and GMS, which SRS acquired in September 2025 for about $5.5 billion in cash, added roughly $6.3 billion of sales. Comparable sales rose just 0.3%, with average ticket up 1.4% and transactions down 1.0%. Net earnings slipped to $14.2 billion from $14.8 billion. The stores in all three countries form one reportable segment, the Primary segment, which sold $152.0 billion split fairly evenly among building materials, decor and hardlines. SRS sits outside it as Other, at $12.7 billion, and roofing was about 53% of that. Sales in the U.S. were $152.2 billion, or 92% of the total. The filing ties soft demand to rates: high interest rates and rising home prices have hurt affordability and kept housing turnover at historically low levels, which cuts the projects that come with buying and selling a home.

Customer concentration

The filing states: "No sales to an individual customer accounted for more than 10% of revenue during any of the last three fiscal years." A newer concern is that specialty trade and MRO Pros increasingly buy on trade credit, which the company says raises its default risk.

Debt

Total debt was about $55.8 billion at February 1, 2026: $4.5 billion of short-term debt and $51.3 billion of long-term debt, including $3.0 billion of finance lease obligations. About $9.4 billion is due within a year, combining the short-term debt with $5.0 billion of current installments. After swaps, floating-rate principal was $5.4 billion, about 11% of the senior notes, and the filing says a one point rise in rates would add about $54 million of annual interest expense.

Risk factors that moved this year

• Tariff regime uncertainty. New language says tariffs have hit certain product categories since the start of fiscal 2025, and that after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, it is unclear what the government will impose under other authority. The filing names Mexico, Canada and China as sourcing countries.
• Pro trade credit. A new passage warns that specialty trade and MRO customers increasingly finance purchases with trade credit, so a downturn in their industries could raise defaults and reduce cash flow. This grows with SRS and GMS.
• Housing turnover. The housing risk factor now says the high rate environment through fiscal 2025 and higher home prices have contributed to historically low housing turnover, reducing demand tied to buying and selling homes. The prior year's risk factors did not use that language.

How this changes the exposure read

Home Depot sits under Consumer Discretionary, and the trade and tariff tag fits: the filing names Mexico, Canada and China as sources and flags fresh uncertainty after the Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs. The larger channel is rates. High rates and home prices have held housing turnover at historically low levels, which hits project demand far more than interest cost does; only $5.4 billion of debt floats. Credit stress reaches it through Pros who buy on trade credit. Oil shocks show up as fuel and delivery costs. Conflict risk and chip or export rules are secondary.

Source: Home Depot 10-K, FY2025. Checked 2026-10-07. Figures are from the filing and may differ from the live stats above.

What is moving it now

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